Forget iPhone 15 buttons, the whole Apple rumor mill needs to hit the reset button

The old adage is “If you don’t like the weather in [location], wait a minute.” (It has been attributed to Will Rogers and many locations lay claim to it, but nobody really knows how or where it started.) One could say the same thing about Apple rumors these days. Disappointed or excited about the latest Apple hardware or software rumor? Just wait…it’ll be backtracked, contradicted, or flip-flopped in no time.

Apple is a famously secretive company, and the rumor mill for its upcoming products has never been particularly reliable or steady. And the further in the future you try to predict, the worse it gets.

But lately, it seems even our most reliable analysts, leakers, and supply chain watchers are all over the place. Their predictions disagree with one another and then turn around entirely.

This is the next Apple product (unless it isn’t)

Here are just some of the major rumor adjustments and disagreements lately:

27-inch display: Originally it was coming at WWDC in 2022. Then it got pushed back to the first quarter of 2023. Then Ross Young said it was “killed off”…”for now” and Ming-Chi Kuo countered a couple of days later to say it hasn’t been killed off it’s just coming in 2024 or early 2025.

15-inch MacBook Air: Ross Young of Display Supply Chain Consultants first claimed the display would measure 15.2 inches, then later 15.5 inches. Ming-Chi Kuo said it would have both M2 and M2 Pro options, while Digitimes saying just an M2 (with 8-core and 10-core options) and Mark Gurman is entirely unsure, speculating that it could get the M3.

iPhone 15 Pro/Ultra: Original reports like that from Mark Gurman said there would be an iPhone 15 Ultra as a replacement for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. But then the most recent analysis says it will come next year and be above the Pro Max model, not in place of it.

Oh, and the solid-state buttons all the rumor traders agreed would be one of the big new changes? Apparently, that’s not happening now. Or maybe it is. Or maybe the volume buttons aren’t changing, but the mute switch will still get replaced by an “action button.” Will the button story change again? “Just wait a minute…”

Apple Reality Pro: The sure-to-happen spring announcement for Apple’s AR/VR headset came and went, with the timeline pushed back to “now the big reveal is at WWDC.” Now Ming-Chi Kuo says its appearance at WWDC is in doubt, but Mark Gurman suggests that is still the date for the big reveal.

iPhone SE with Apple 5G modem: Remember waaay back in [checks notes] last month, when Apple was going to release an iPhone SE with its first in-house designed 5G modem in the spring of 2024? Even the Qualcomm CEO seemed to be banking on it. Now Ming-Chi Quo says that Apple’s just testing and validating using an alternate version of the iPhone SE that’s not actually going to release until 2025 at the earliest.

Shifting reports are commonplace

We could go on with the list of rapidly changing Apple rumors of late—don’t get us started on the headset—but you get the point. We get it, rumors about future Apple products are a hot commodity. Analysts and leakers know they’ll get the most coverage and even the wildest claims are often reported with little regard to providence.

We’ve covered rumors long enough to know that they can shift and change with the wind. But the current climate seems particularly windy. We’re not saying that’s a sign that these analysts and reporters are making things up, but perhaps everyone can step back, take a deep breath, and give it a little time before delivering the next rumor that may or may not be true.

Simply put: Things change. Apple may have plans but can’t get over a particularly thorny technical issue, so the plans are scrapped or changed. A feature may rely on a supplier that is having production or quality issues. In some cases, Apple may believe the market can’t support its initial plan–either due to pricing concerns or because it can’t manufacture enough to meet demand.

A rumor may be accurate as to the state of Apple’s current plans, and then a few weeks later, those plans have changed. That we have such incongruous intel lately may have as much to do with the rate at which Apple’s plans are changing as they do with the accuracy of the information.

When we present not-yet-announced information, we always try to point you toward the source and add a little context to let you know how much faith you should put in it. We simply don’t report rumors that come from notoriously unreliable sources if they aren’t accompanied by strong evidence.

But whether here or somewhere else, you shouldn’t put too much stock in Apple rumors right now. Apple is incredibly secretive, has been known to “plant” false info to flush out leaks, and changes its mind as it evaluates the market, its own capabilities, and those of its suppliers. Maybe that’s what’s happening, or maybe Apple is just very indecisive.

Either way, nothing is real until Apple says it’s real.